When vintage vanishes - or in other words, the day that we have run out of good pre-owned items. While this may be overdramatic and not a matter of geopolitical importance, it is something we are steering towards - or so some say. On one hand are two problems that will make this inevitable, on the other hand is cognitive distortion.
People are pointing to the decreasing stock of good pre-owned clothing that’s available online. To which only one thing can be said - preowned hasn’t been Airbnb’d yet. There is a huge opportunity for someone to completely destroy the offline resale market in Brian-Chesky-fashion (pun intended) by adding a tech layer to the ecosystem of second-hand stores. This would monopolize inventory, add a massive cost layer on top of the existing decentralized inventory, and create a level plain field without regional information and stock asymetry. Farfetch, and boy did I love that platform between 2009-2015, has shown us that adding a tech layer works in theory, until your ambitions become too big and you lose sight of your original mission. Retailers now dislike Farfetch A LOT because of its fee structure, pricing tactics, and operations. Meaning that as long as discovery is centralized in the form of resale platforms like Vinted, TRR, Vestiare et al, and not inventory a la Farfetch or Airbnb, the cost structure for customers and inventory discovery platforms will ensure pockets of high-end items finding their way to customers that are not priced to maximize the sellers profit but to make a few extra bucks. (“vintage” Hollister, American Eagle, Forever 21, BeBe scalpers are excempt from this)
Let’s unpack this dropshipped hypothesis a little further. First, we are unlikely to “run out” of desirable second-hand items because of the volume that brands have produced for decades, and continue to. Millions of people own dozens to hundreds of luxury items each that have not hit the market yet, and are waiting to be thrown away, discovered by their (grand)kids, donated, or to find a new home through estate sales.
While there is a significant percentage of consumers who wear the heck out of their clothes (we all should) or do not care for their garments - the number of people owning a large wardrobe/huge rotations, and those who are precious with their well-made items, is still significant. Meaning there will always be a supply from these two people that fall into either consumer behavior groups.
About cognitive distortion. We are living in a time where the status quo is so messy and chaotic that the yearning for yesteryear comes with an oftentimes overstated sense of positivity towards all aspects of a bygone era. Whether that’s old cars driving better - have you ever driven a car with a four-speed manual gearbox, without power steering and air-conditioning ? It’s an experience, but you surely don’t want this to be your daily driver when logging 50-100km per day in a populated environment. Another example is “fruits tasting like fruits” - because they were neither available all year round due and grown industrial-scale greenhouses, nor were they bought out of season and harvested unripe to be flown halfway across the world. Fashion was “made to last”, is another classic of the genre. Fewer pieces were made and they came in at a higher price proportionate to what people earned. Today, the world is wealthier than ever, and companies have never produced more premium and luxury products. You are getting technically more advanced products that are better on paper in every regard, but our expectation for something to be rough and tumble or always available at a low price has led to a mismatch between what was, what is, and what can be produced.
What will happen to a 2020 Loro Piana sweater, or a 2018 Missoni dress in 2050 ? Because if you believe the public, the quality has gone down on these compared to Loro Piana and Missoni items from the 70s and 80s, and they are “not worth it”. While raw materials are more prone to negative environmental impacts, and are being processed into ever-finer products due to technological innovations. The overall quality remains the best that mills, spinners, and weavers can produce, at what is arguably a higher yield than in the past. There is an underlying panic about everything - the world feels like a bunch of broken plates jumbled together. Everyone’s constantly collecting paper cuts or trying to avoid them. But as a firm believer in capitalism, today’s premium and luxury garments that we are all wearing will become just as desirable as your parents’ thirty-year-old garments. Why ? Primarily because today’s vintage items will have been worn out in 30 years from now, which will cause reference points to change. 2. Secondly, and more importantly, there is plenty of room left to make clothing worse. It’s not all intentional. One-half of the reason for it will be the result of a hotter and more erratic climate, which will reduce the availability and quality of top-shelf fibers. The other half will be influenced by geopolitics and shareholder-maxing. I know, and you know, both are two sides of the same coin, but that’s beyond the point. The reason for today’s seemingly ill-made garments becoming desirable in the future is the same that makes today’s vintage pieces as sought-after as they are. Both were made to the best possible standards at scale at their time of production. This doesn’t absolve brands from doing better and raising their standards, but overall, the best that we can buy today is unlikely to get better because of external factors that are unrelated to the production intent.
TLDR - information asymmetry and physical isolation paired with unknown offline vintage inventory will guarantee a steady influx of new vintage goods. The quality perception of vintage fashion is relative to the observer’s status quo.
- Fabricateurialist -
Brunello beyond boundaries
The Solomeo-based luxury brand has once again defied all trends and grown its revenue in Europe by 10%, the US by 8.7%, and Asia by 12.5%. Italy is now contributing almost 1/3 to its European revenues with €78.8 million. There are many brands out there producing better and worse products than Cucinelli at higher and lower price points. The key to Cucinelli’s success is that it understood and honed in on making its customers feel good about their purchases. The brand’s CSR component is arguably its strongest, subconscious, selling point - achieved without wrestling the bureaucratic beast that would allow it to obtain B-Corp status. Soft colors, fabrics, and light-wearing garments ensure a client’s comfort - and deliver that stereotypical Italian ease. Kudos to Cucinelli for beating trends and the market, once again.
L’Écurie Paris
The brand's Japanese-made and 18kt gold-plated glasses are handmade from Tokiron acetate
Monogram Styling
An unlimited budget needs an unlimited vision. My clients rarely lack the resources to acquire the best things in life - once they are exposed to them. There is an initial moment when you encounter s…
Milano Unica takeaways
The Italians are standing their ground - come a strong Euro, or a slowdown in luxury consumption
For clicks and giggles
Buttons and threads / bits and bobs
The Charles Tyrwhitt shirt review drops next weekend, and the shirt will then make its way to one IG follower who won the draw two weeks ago.
Eton drops on the first weekend of August
A trip down memory lane with Marol is in the making too. The once iconic Bolognese shirtmaker, here documented by Parisian Gentleman, went out of business shortly after it was acquired by a finance guy who wanted to follow his passion in fashion. You can still find some NWT stock floating around the internet, but it does not come cheap. For context, its custom shirts cost between €700-€1200 in the 2010s, while ready-to-wear shirts started at €400, so you do the inflation math on that.
There are also pant reviews from Stefano Ricci, Zilli, Polo Ralph Lauren and Brioni in the works.
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